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2019 NCAA Tournament Lessons #5: Game Theory

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2019 NCAA Tournament Lessons #5: Game Theory

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2019 NCAA Tournament Lessons #4, cont'd: Seaborn Clustermaps

2019 NCAA Tournament Lessons #4: Seaborn Clustermaps

2019 NCAA Tournament Lesson #3: Over-Population & Lotka-Volterra, cont'd.

2019 NCAA Tournament Lesson #3: Over-Population & Lotka-Volterra

2019 NCAA Tournament Lesson Learned #2: Hawk/Owl Definition

2019 NCAA Tournament, Lesson Learned #1: Weighting Networks

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: The Loss Network & Girvan-Newman Clusters - Chp. 24

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: The Loss Network & Girvan-Newman Clusters - Chp. 24

by Jess Behrens © 2005-2018 Jess Behrens, All Rights Reserved If we consider, again, the homophily graph first displayed in Chapter 20, reproduced here as Figure 1, it is clear that links & triads in the Loss Network are closer to random (1:1) than the Win Network. I wanted to know more about why this was the case to be sure that using the Loss Network won't confuse the machine learning algorithms I use to classify the tournament. Figure 1. Out vs. In Connections by Evoluti

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: Entropy, Nash Equilibrium, & Tournament Clusters - Chp. 21

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: Entropy, Nash Equilibrium, & Tournament Clusters - Chp. 21

by Jess Behrens © 2005-2018 Jess Behrens, All Rights Reserved "I think you should always bear in mind that entropy is not on your side." --Elon Musk Musk is right about this: when it comes to understanding things, nature's tendency is towards disorder, which gets in the way of prediction. But, do we make this tendency worse by misunderstanding what we are trying to predict? When it comes to the NCAA Tournament, the answer to that question is a resounding yes. I'll get to

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: Game Theory & Tournament Clusters - Chp. 22

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: Game Theory & Tournament Clusters - Chp. 22

by Jess Behrens © 2005-2018 Jess Behrens, All Rights Reserved In my last post I covered entropy and how it can be used to develop an estimate for how 'disordered' a given Tournament year really is. In that process, I showed that much of our surprise as fans, when a lower seed team 'upsets' a 'better', higher seeded team is the result of how seeding is a necessary, but artificial, grouping (1 & 2). 1. Introduce the idea of entropy and why it is the ideal tool for quantifyin

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: Birds of a Feather -> the Homophily Principle - Chp. 20

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: Birds of a Feather -> the Homophily Principle - Chp. 20

by Jess Behrens © 2005-2018 Jess Behrens, All Rights Reserved "Similarity breeds connection. This principle—the homophily principle—structures network ties of every type, including marriage, friendship, work, advice, support, information transfer, exchange, comembership, and other types of relationship." -Abstract, McPherson, et. al. 2001 One of the, if not THE, primary force driving network growth & analysis is the homophily principle. The above quote, which I pulled from

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: Which Teams Benefit from Uncertainty? - Chp. 19

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: Which Teams Benefit from Uncertainty? - Chp. 19

by Jess Behrens © 2005-2018 Jess Behrens, All Rights Reserved Over the past few chapters, I've illustrated, using tables & graphics, how the tournament structure is based on competition among the four evolutionary game theory species types. These illustrations are based on the evolutionary game theory simulations described in previous chapters & which consider each of the four species' percentage of the total tournament population to be the primary, driving force behind a g

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: Structural Holes - Chp. 18

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: Structural Holes - Chp. 18

by Jess Behrens © 2005-2018 Jess Behrens, All Rights Reserved In Chapter 17, I posted about how the structure of the tournament effectively chooses who wins the championship & that the tournaments cluster around the competition between Doves & Dove-Owls. Furthermore, I showed that in some of these clusters, Nash Mixed Strategy equilibria exist between the two primary species, Hawks & Owls, in the second round. But the question remains: are the major upsets which occur durin

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: The Dove-Owl Surge, Chp. 17

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: The Dove-Owl Surge, Chp. 17

by Jess Behrens © 2005-2018 Jess Behrens, All Rights Reserved Up to this point, I've worked faithfully under the impression that the tournament is essentially a random walk. The results of my analysis have caused me to start to doubt that. In fact, I no longer think that the tournament is the result of statistical processes (i.e. trend, with uncertainty). I believe that the evidence shows that the champion, and perhaps the runner-up, can be explained by taking a mechanist

Hawks, Doves, Owls: Improving the Method - Chp. 16

Hawks, Doves, Owls: Improving the Method - Chp. 16

by Jess Behrens © 2005-2018 Jess Behrens, All Rights Reserved Because building a model like this is a process, I continually look for ways to improve it. The basis of the model is, of course, the vector and how it is converted into the win & loss networks (Chapter 3). Since my last post, I've discovered two additional large, structural queries that had a major impact on how the networks were 'wired'. While all of the queries are important and provide input into the interc

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: Lotka-Volterra Predator/Prey Dynamics in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tou

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: Lotka-Volterra Predator/Prey Dynamics in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tou

by Jess Behrens © 2005-2018 Jess Behrens, All Rights Reserved By now it should be obvious that I believe the field of ecology has a lot to contribute to our understanding of human, societal phenomenon that don't involve adorably fuzzy bunnies, iridescent butterflies, cute furry dogs, or stomach churning millipedes; the birds & bees. In other words, not just nature 'outside' of us. For those of you reading this wondering why in the hell anyone would spend so much time on so

How to save the NBA: A Heresy.

How to save the NBA: A Heresy.

by Jess Behrens © 2005-2018 Jess Behrens, All Rights Reserved The NBA is almost dead. Ok, from a financial standpoint, that statement is patently false. But, from my vantage point, it's definitely flatlining on the emergency room table. And, the worst part is, it's absent heart beat mimics its problem: boring predictability. Raise your hand if you're excited about seeing the Warriors win another title? Ok, aside from your Golden State fans, that's 0 hands, which include

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: How the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is Like an Election - Chp. 15

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: How the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is Like an Election - Chp. 15

by Jess Behrens © 2005-2018 Jess Behrens, All Rights Reserved Typically, when we think of competition, we believe that 'the best team wins'. Or, 'the most dominant player wins'. Or 'the best idea wins'. I've spent the 14 blog posts showing how, at least as far as the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is concerned, this belief isn't entirely true. It's partially true, of course, because the entire take away of all this work is that the tournament winner is predictable, and

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: Those Pesky 5 Seeds - Chp. 12

Hawks, Doves, & Owls: Those Pesky 5 Seeds - Chp. 12

by Jess Behrens © 2005-2018 Jess Behrens, All Rights Reserved Every March, when you sit down to fill out your one of 40 million brackets, the first question is: which 12 seed are you going to pick to beat a five seed? There's definitely some statistical credibility to the notion that the 5 seeds are jinxed. But why? I believe that evolutionary game theory can tell us a little bit about what is going on, and I plan to spend the next few paragraphs doing just that! Of cours

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